For everyone who expected Canada and Russia to cruise into a gold medal matchup, day three of the Men's Olympic Hockey Tournament served as a wakeup call, exemplifying why this tournament is do difficult to win.
Canada was able to muster a 3-2 shootout victory over the Swiss on Thursday, but the Russians weren't so lucky, falling in a shootout 2-1 to a Slovakian team that was playing their second game in less than 24 hours.
To all the Canadian fans out there - step back from the ledge, my northern brothers. The Canadian squad will be fine once they play a team that employs more of a "normal" style of hockey. Don't get me wrong, the Swiss are the consummate team and have played excellent hockey through their first two games, but they play a style that can lull a team with so much talent to sleep - i.e. over passing, thinking too much, looking for the perfect shot, etc. It was clear that Canada was getting frustrated as the game progressed, as they were unable to break into the Swiss zone with speed. You need to give credit where credit is due, and the Swiss played a much better team game on Thursday than the Canadian side.
For Sunday's game against the Americans, Canada just needs to keep it simple. Play hard, shoot the puck more, and throw the body around.
Anybody whose watched the Americans so far knows their defense is downright brutal - too much pinching, no cohesion, and low percentage passing all over the place. I'm not saying the game Sunday won't be a close one, or that the US can't win - they certainly can - but I'd definitely push all my chips into the middle for Canada on Sunday.
Here's a few musings about the Canadian and American teams...
- Who will play with Sidney Crosby and Rick Nash? I think Mike Babcock went away from Jarome Iginla in that spot a little too early, and I wonder if he might pluck somebody off of the Corey Perry - Ryan Getzlaf - Eric Staal line and pencil them into the first unit. He gave Jonathon Toews a shot there during the third period, but I don't think he's the right fit on Crosby's wing. The one line that will surely remain unchanged is the all-San Jose Sharks line of Dany Heatley - Joe Thornton - Patrick Marleau, which has been the best Canadian line by a country mile. If I'm Mike Babcock I might just go back to Iginla on Crosby's line, and if that doesn't work change it up after a period. Maybe even try Getzlaf on the wing with Crosby? They are both pass first centers who like to have the puck a lot, but I could certainly see it working - they are both extraordinarily talented and have great puck sense.
- Babcock needs to start going with two power play units - three doesn't work. Make one unit comprised of the Thornton line, and have the other unit be Crosby, Getzlaf, and give the third spot to whoever is playing best.
- Duncan Keith still looks a bit jittery out there.
- Drew Doughty's turnover led to the first Swiss goal, but I'd still give him a regular shift. He makes things happen out there, and I still wouldn't consider him a defensive reliability in the slightest.
- Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer need to play better.
- For the Americans, it all comes down to defense. Ryan Miller is going to need a lot of help on Sunday, and it will be up to the American defensemen to put forth a much better effort than they have so far in the tournament versus lesser opponents.
- Ryan Whitney has been atrocious - he shouldn't see the ice versus Canada.
- I'd expect the bulk of the ice-time on defense to go to Brian Rafalski, Ryan Suter, and Brooks Orpik.
- The line of Phil Kessel - Joe Pavelski - Ryan Malone and the fourth unit featuring a foursome of David Backes, Ryan Callahan, Chris Drury, and Bobby Ryan have played very well. I'd probably change some things up if I'm Ron Wilson, as he did late in the Norway game. I'd put Jamie Langenbrunner on a line with Zach Parise - the Parise - Paul Stastny - Patrick Kane combination just hasn't cut it. Wilson just needs to go with whose playing well. David Backes, especially, is deserving of a lot more ice time come Sunday.
Here are the keys for the other teams taking to the ice on Sunday:
Russia vs. Czech Republic
- For Russia, they just need to compete harder. No one is going to the net, and there isn't enough cohesion amongst the forwards. I don't care how much talent you have, without a net presence it's all for naught. On the power play, Russia needs to completely change it up. Why Vyacheslav Bykov didn't give Pavel Datsyuk any time on the power play is beyond me. Here's an interview with Bykov, who gives some answers for why he went with Alexander Ovechkin - who is notoriously below par during shootouts in the NHL - three times against the Slovaks.
- For the Czechs, they just need to keep doing what they're doing. They didn't play their best hockey versus Latvia yesterday, but they were far from bad. Jaromir Jagr has been the Czechs' best forward, and if he can continue to perform well he gives the Czech Republic three very strong lines. Patrik Elias, Tomas Kaberle, Marek Zidlicky, and goaltender Tomas Vokoun have had strong starts to the tournament, as well. If they can discourage the Russians early and jump out to a lead, I love their chances tomorrow.
Sweden vs. Finland
- This rematch of the gold medal game from the '06 Olympics in Torino should be a closely contested tilt. I expect great goaltending from both sides (Henrik Lundqvist versus Miikka Kiprusoff), and a whole lot of physicality from start to finish (no pun intended). For Sweden to come away victorious, they will need to get better production up front, especially from the ineffective trio of Peter Forsberg - Henrik Zetterberg - Patric Hornqvist. For the Finns, they'll need big efforts from Kimmo Timonen, Sami Salo, and Joni Pitkanen on defense and efficient production on special teams.
Lastly, how about that gutsy effort from the Slovaks against Russia? Zdeno Chara, who had to withstand three or four big hits from Ovechkin, put forth an unbelievable effort, as did former running mate in Ottawa, Andrej Meszaros. The combination of Jaroslav Halak in net, the scoring prowess of Marian Hossa, Pavol Demitra, and (currently playing on the second line to balance out the offense) Marian Gaborik up front, and Chara on the blue line will make the Slovaks a threat against any team in this tournament.
Each of Sunday's winners will claim first place in their group, ensuring a bye into the quarterfinals. One second place team will also receive a bye.
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