'09-'10 Eastern Conference Predictions

Here’s a few thoughts about the Eastern Conference I’ll delve into before going into my predictions:

* After the Flyers, Capitals, Bruins, and Penguins, the East becomes wide open. Eight teams (see my five through twelve selections) will be competing for those final four spots

* Last year there were two big point drop-offs. One was between the three and four seeds, and the other between the ten and eleven seeds (I don’t include the drop between thirteen and fourteen seeds because it is unimportant as far as playoff ramifications). That means the three division winners were head and shoulders above the rest, and only two teams that finished outside the playoffs were in competition for a playoff spot. This year, I expect the two big drop-offs to come between four and five, and between twelve and thirteen. Expect the parity in the middle of the Eastern Conference to resemble the log-jam that was prevalent for most of the season in the West last year, where the Dallas Stars, despite finishing a lowly twelfth, were only eight points outside of the playoffs.

* The hardest division for me to pick was the Northeast. The Bruins are clearly the best team, but after that it is wide, and I mean wide, open.

* I still expect four teams to get in from the Atlantic Division, something that’s occurred three straight seasons, now.

* Remember to think about what teams should excel in the shoot-out. It seems trivial, but a team like the Rangers with Henrik Lundqvist in net, and Marian Gaborik and Ales Kotalik shooting, is in a good position to nab a lot of extra points. Guys like Martin Brodeur and Lundqvist loom large in this aspect of the game.

Keeping these thoughts in mind, here are my Eastern Conference Predictions…

1. Philadelphia Flyers*
- Scoring, Checking, Defense, and most importantly, leadership. The Chris Pronger addition gives the Flyers’ one of the best defensive groups in the game, and adds another leader to a locker room already full of them (Mike Richards, Kimmo Timonen, Simon Gagne, Jeff Carter). Two questions linger: Can Ray Emery cut the antics and reach another Stanley Cup Final? And, can the Flyers tame their penalty-laden nature?

2. Washington Capitals*
- With guys like Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green, it’d be a shock if the Caps didn’t capture the Southeast Division, again. But will their defense and goaltending be good enough, and consistent enough, come playoff time? Is Varlamov ready to take the reigns?

3. Boston Bruins*
- The Bruins possess the defending Jack Adams (Claude Julien), Vezina (Tim Thomas), and Norris Trophy (Zdeno Chara) winners. They lost leading goal-scorer Phil Kessel, but they have plenty of guys to help fill the hole. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some questions to be answered. How will David Krejci comeback from off-season surgery? Will Patrice Bergeron step up his game offensively?

4. Pittsburgh Penguins
- Sidney Crosby. Evgeni Malkin. Sergei Gonchar. Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins will continue to be successful because their top guns are the best in the business. But, will the role players be able to help them out? If they do, the rest of the league is in trouble.

5. Carolina Hurricanes
- The Hurricanes possess a slightly above average offense and a solid, but unspectacular, defense. So why will they finish fifth? Chemistry, Coaching, and above all, Cam Ward. The ‘Canes will go as far as Eric Staal and Ward can take them. Staal could really use some help from an old buddy - Erik Cole. Will Cole be able to return to the wreck-less abandon style of play he employed before being badly injured by a Brooks Orpik hit?

6. New York Rangers
- The Rangers have made their fair share of changes over the summer. Marian Gaborik heads a vastly different group of forwards up front, while the Rangers have also plugged in two rookies (Michael Del Zotto and Matt Gilroy) for two veterans (Paul Mara and Derek Morris) on the blue-line. Henrik Lundqvist will still rule supreme in between the pipes, which cannot be overlooked. Outside of Lundqvist, there are a handful of question marks. Will Gaborik stay healthy? Will Sean Avery be a problem for his opponents or for his own team? How will John Tortorella’s attack style of play work, especially amongst the defensemen, on Broadyway?

7. New Jersey Devils
- The Devils lost Brian Gionta, John Madden, Bobby Holik, Mike Rupp, and Scott Clemmensen. They added…Cory Murphy and Yann Danis. So this is the year they finally miss the playoffs, right? Nope. Jacques Lemaire will “bore” the Devils right back into the playoffs. Two questions, though - Will Zach Parise continue his offensive exploits in Lemaire’s system? Will Marty Brodeur play like it’s 1995, or play like he did in the game that eliminated the Devils last spring?

8. Toronto Maple Leafs
- The new-look Brian Burke defense looks good. Tomas Kaberle is healthy and in great shape. Jonas Gustavsson is knocking on the door if Vesa Toskala falters. However, there is one big question - can they score enough to win games? The main reasons I like them to sneak into the last playoff spot - grit, determination, and above all, chemistry. I just see this team coming together - probably my biggest “gut” pick here.

9. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Vincent Lecavalier is healthy, the defense is improved, and Steven Stamkos is a year older. Expect Martin St. Louis and Lecavalier to power the Lightning to a much improved season in ‘09-’10. The big question marks will be goaltender Mike Smith’s health and the defensive group. It will also be interesting to see how Victor Hedman performs in his rookie season, as he is tutored by fellow-countrymen Mattias Ohlund.

10. Montreal Canadiens
- I could go through all the additions and departures, but everyone reading this knows the Habs are a completely different team than in ‘08-’09. This season will come down to two things for Montreal - leadership and the play of Carey Price. If the team leaders (Scott Gomez, Mike Cammalleri, Andrei Markov) and goaltending (Carey Price) strive, the Habs will finish higher than 10th. In the fishbowl that is Montreal, it’s anyone’s guess how the team will perform.

11. Ottawa Senators
- Expect Jason Spezza to bounce back to over 90 points. Expect Daniel Alfredsson to go about his business as usual. Milan Michalek should develop well playing on a line with Spezza and Alfredsson. However, the defensive group is below average, and the goaltending duo of Pascal Leclaire (will he stay healthy?) and Brian Elliot doesn’t exactly have me brimming with confidence. The Sens should improve on 83 points, but unless Alexei Kovalev plays like it’s ’07-’08, the defense comes together, and the goaltending proves itself…well, you get the picture. A lot would need to fall into place.

12. Buffalo Sabres
- The Sabres are another difficult team to place. Their offense will be solid, especially if Tim Connolly can stay healthy (doubtful), and the goaltending department is in excellent hands with Ryan Miller. But their defense is awful on paper. I like Craig Rivet, but he’s far from a number one defenseman. Just as Toni Lydman isn’t a number two…I could go down the list. If the defense finds a way to be greater than the sum of its parts, the Sabres should finish better than 12th.

13. Atlanta Thrashers
- Yes, the Thrashers do look much better on paper this year. They should have a quality power-play, Zach Bogosian will continue to develop on the back-end, and they still have one of the elite players in the world in Ilya Kovalchuk. However, the defense is still very iffy in their own zone, the offense is nothing to get excited about, and Kari Lehtonen can’t stay healthy.

14. Florida Panthers
- The Panthers had a nice run at the playoffs last season, coming in at a tie for 8th with the Canadiens, but losing out on the tie-breaker. I don’t think they’ll be that close to the playoffs this season. How will the defense perform without Jay Bouwmeester? Will Nathan Horton finally take the next step? Can Tomas Vokoun and Scott Clemmensen get it done in between the pipes?

15. New York Islanders
- They play in the hardest division in the East, Kyle Okposo is already hurt, and the offense and defense are significantly below average. Well, the power-play with John Tavares and Mark Streit should be fun to watch, atleast, right?