Slumps. Injuries. The wrong linemates. The wrong coach. The wrong system.There's several reasons a player can have a down year. But the big question looming for these players and their teams is, can they bounce back?
Here's ten guys I think will.
10. Scott Gomez (C-MTL)
'08-'09 stat-line: 77 gp, 16 g, 42 a, 58 pts, -2
- In the three seasons before last, the speedy Gomez averaged .91 points per game. Last year he came in at lowly .75 points per game, his lowest since the '02-'03 season. There were a handful of reasons - a high ankle sprain, a bad offensive team, no linemates, and one of the worst power-plays I have ever seen. Expect "Gomer" to jump back up to around a point per game, due in large part to former linemate Brian Gionta and ex-Calgary sniper Mike Cammalleri flanking him on the wings. This line may be small in stature, but I think they will really click. Gomez knows how to play in a defensive system from his Devils days, so don't expect that to hold him back. And let's be honest, could Montreal possibly be worse offensively than the Rangers of last season? I think not.
9. Peter Mueller (RW-PHO)
'08-'09 stat-line: 72 gp, 13 g, 23 a, 36 pts, -7
- The 'Yotes were expecting big things from Peter Mueller in his sophomore season. Unfortunately for Gretzky's squad, the sophmore slump hit Mueller - and hard. Not only did Mueller's point total drop by 18, but his assertiveness all over the ice took a nose dive. Many nights I found myself checking the box-score to see if he was even in the line-up. Phoenix fans (if there are any) shouldn't be too concerned. Many times a young player needs to take a step back before taking two steps forward. Expect Mueller's dissapointing sophomore campaign to fuel his fire for the '09-'10 season. A likely coaching change will only help. No offense to "The Great One," but he's no Scotty Bowman. I'd pencil Mueller in for 20+ goals and around 55-60 points.
8. Tomas Kaberle (D-TOR)
'08-'09 stat-line: 57 gp, 4 g, 27 a, 31 pts, -8
Tomas Kaberle's '08-'09 season was filled with drama. His name was in the headlines for all the wrong reasons...and constantly. Trade rumors, first, and then an injury. But those times have came and passed. Kaberle is still wearing the maple leaf on the front of his sweater, and will anchor a much improved Toronto defense. Coach Wilson has already came out and stated they expect 27-28 minutes a night from the Czech defender. The additions to the blue-line will allow Kaberle to stretch his legs offensively, much the way we've seen in the past when he's put up consecutive seasons of 67, 58, and 53 points. Expect Kaberle to get back to the 50 point plateau in '09-'10.
7. Erik Johnson (D-STL)
'08-'09 stat-line: 0 gp, 0 g, 0 a, 0 pts, +/-0
- When reflecting on the Blues emergence into the playoffs last season, it's easy to forget they were missing the 2006 NHL Draft's #1 Selection. Erik Johnson did not play in '08-'09, thanks to a freak accident on the golf course. Those damned golf carts will get you every time. Johnson had an excellent rookie season in '07-'08, notching 33 points in 69 games played. Johnson will be a star - that much is for sure. If he can work his way onto the Blues' top power-play unit, which he should, the big totals will be there. For '09-'10 I'd expect anywhere from 40 to 55 points from the young rearguard, who should log around 19-23 minutes a game - and possibly more as the season progresses. The only thing that can slow this kid down is injuries.
6. Brent Burns (D-MIN)
'08-'09 stat-line: 59 gp, 8 g, 19 a, 27 pts, -7
- After breaking out in '07-'08 and registering 15 goals and 43 points, last season was one to forget for Brent Burns. A defensive system. An undiagnosed concussion. What a head-ache (zing!). There's a number of reasons to expect big things from #8 this year. A new coach. A system that preaches attacking. More firepower up front in the form of Martin Havlat (and possibly Petr Sykora) - remember Marian Gaborik only played 17 games last season. Not to mention, Burns will be trying to play his way onto the Canadian Olympic team. Expect Burns to log more minutes than he has prior in his young career. Don't forget that Burns, not Mike Green, won the award for best defenseman at the '08 IIHF Worlds. '09-'10 will be a good one for the Ajax, Ontario native.
5. Carey Price
'08-'09 stat-line: 23-16-10, .905 SV%, 2.83 GAA, 1 so
-Big things were expected from Carey Price in '08-'09. Coming off a splendid rookie season in which Montreal advanced to the second round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs, big things were expected not only from Price, but the Canadiens as a whole. However, it wasn't to be for Price or the Canadiens. Much of the criticism was directed to the young man inbetween the pipes. Perhaps too much was expected of the Hab's tender, who turned just 21 during the season. Critics said he wasn't in shape, had a poor attitude, enjoyed the Montreal night-life too much, and that he needed to stop acting his age. They were probably right. I expect last year to serve as a wake-up call for Price, who will now be in a more defensive-savy Jacques Martin system, which should help tremendously. Carey Price is destined to be a top five goalie in this league. Will next year be the season? I'm not quite sure, but the key to Montreal's future should be a top ten goalie, atleast, in '09-'10.
4. Jason Spezza
'08-'09 stat-line: 82 gp, 32 g, 41 a, 73 pts, -14
- Jason Spezza came into the '08-'09 season with a few things on his mind. For one, he wanted to play 82 games, being limited to an average of just 71 games in the previous three years. And two, he wanted to improve his defensive game, and become a better all-around player in the process. Well, he managed to play in 82 games...but the results weren't what you'd expect. Spezza only notched 73 points. Taking his average stats from the previous three seasons, Spezza's point totals, pro-rated for an 82 game season, should have been at 105 points. Not only did he underperform offensively, but his defensive game didn't improve. If anything, it got worse. Even though Spezza will be without Heatley this year, guys like Alexei Kovalev, Milan Michalek, and Sens' Captain Daniel Alfredsson will provide Spezza with suitable wingers. Who knows, maybe Spezza can even resurrect Jonathon Cheechoo the way Joe Thornton did in '06-'07. Do you think Spezza will want to prove Hockey Canada wrong for not putting him on its initial try-out list for Team Canada's camp? I do. Expect Spezza to register 90+ points, while also improving his dismal defensive play.
3. Dion Phaneuf
'08-'09 stat-line: 80 gp, 11 g, 36 a, 14 pts, -11
-If I were to tell you back in September of 2008 that there was a 23 year-old defenseman who had improved his point and +/- totals in his first three seasons, from 49 points and a +5, to 50 points and a +10, to 60 points and a +12, what would you expect in his fourth year? Certainly not a 47 point, -11 showing. Now 24, Phaneuf will try to continue making the strides he had made in his first three years in the NHL. Known for having a large ego, expect Phaneuf to take his '08-'09 performance to heart. He has to be better, and he will be. With the addition of Jay Bouwmeester, there's no reason to expect Phaneuf won't be playing with one of Robyn Regehr, Cory Sarich, or Bouwmeester - all excellent partners. Expect "Double Dion" Phaneuf to get back to his old ways in '09-'10 - putting pucks in the net and banging bodies.
2. Vincent Lecavalier
'08-'09 stat-line: 77 gp, 29 g, 38 a, 67 pts, -9
Outside of Marty St. Louis, positives were hard to come by for the Tampa Bay Lightning in '08-'09. Positives were also hard to come by for team captain Vincent Lecavalier. For starters, Lecavalier was coming off major surgery on his left wrist. He then had to endure a coaching change, an ownership controversy, and daily trade rumors. The big center had averaged 100 pts over the course of the past two seasons. '08-'09 saw Lecavalier register 37 points less than that average, not even hitting the 30 goal mark - something that should be a certainty for a player of Lecavalier's talent. The bottom line is Lecavalier is now 100% healthy, and fully assured that he will be in Tampa Bay for the long haul. While he might not be playing with St. Louis at even strength this season, the Lightning captain will still notch atleast a point per-game, and probably more. A 40+ goals, 50+ assists, 90+ points season should be in the works for the french-canadian center.
1. Dany Heatley
'08-'09 stat-line: 82 gp, 39 g, 33 a, 72 pts, -11
Dany Heatley had been one of the premiere players in the first three seasons after the NHL lock-out. Two 50 goal seasons (and it could've been three had he not been out for 11 games in '07-'08). An average of 1.23 points per-game. +93. A trip to the Stanley Cup Finals...Then there was '08-'09. Heatley's season didn't go as planned, and neither did the Senators, who missed the playoffs for the first time since the '95-'96 campaign. Things will be better for Heatley in '09-'10. After demanding a trade, Heatley will now find himself on Joe Thornton's left wing in San Jose, and on a team that won the President's Trophy in '08-'09. Heatley will be playing for re-newed respect, a spot on Canada's Olympic squad, and a chance to push San Jose towards a long and elusive playoff run. A 45+ goal, 90+ season should be in the cards for San Jose's newest sniper.
Honorable mentions: Paul Stastny (C-Col), Danny Briere (C-PHI), Vesa Toskala (G-TOR), Ed Jovanovski (D-PHO), Lubomir Visnovsky (D-EDM), Olli Jokinen (C-CGY)
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