2010-2011 NHL Predictions

If you look across the many eras of NHL hockey, there are certain facets that stand out about each. In the late 90's and early 2000's we had the "dead puck era," a time when scoring was down across the board and teams often looked to scratch, claw, and hook their way towards victories. What defines the NHL's post-lockout era?

Parity.

While a few teams have found ways to continue to be the cream of the crop (Detroit being the most obvious), we are now in an era where an eighth-seed (Montreal) can take out a number one seed that ran away with the Presidents' Trophy, then upend the defending Stanley Cup Champs in the second round, only to lose to the seventh-seed in the Conference Finals. An era where only 10 of the 16 teams in last spring's playoffs were in the playoffs the year before. Since the lockout we have had five different champions in five years, with eight different teams making a trip to the Cup Finals. In the ten years before the lockout, we only had five different champions.

I say all this, not to supply you with a disclaimer before embarking on my predictions, but rather to highlight the tremendous parity which the NHL now boasts. While the salary cap and the three-point game certainly create much of this parity, the equality of the teams still shines through during the playoffs.

Here are my predictions for what is sure to be another exciting, up-and-down, crazy NHL season...

Eastern Conference

1. Washington Capitals*
Playoff demons to exercise? Certainly. But, there is little reason to expect anything but excellence from Bruce Boudreau's Club during the regular season. Their defense should be improved as John Carlson and Karl Alzner step into the lineup full-time, and I'd make a case their goaltending is better with Michal Neuvirth stepping in as the opening night goalie. Remember, this is a team that was 7-2-1 even without Alexander Ovechkin in the lineup. The Capitals are deep, star-studded, and should be in store for another special regular season.

2. Boston Bruins*
Claude Julien's club is much improved on paper from a year ago. While the injury to Marc Savard won't help matters offensively, this is still a team that added Nathan Horton and Tyler Seguin during the summer. With Zdeno Chara healthy on the back-end, Tuukka Rask and back-up Tim Thomas in between the pipes, and a coach who has been very successful during his tenure in Beantown, I'd expect big things from the B's this season.

3. Philadelphia Flyers*
It's often talked about how difficult it is to bounce back the following season after losing in the finals the previous spring. But for the Flyers, I look at their playoff run as a springboard for the 2010-2011 season. Chris Pronger is coming off of surgery but should be alright, the offense is as deep as ever and added Nikolai Zherdev (who has shown a lot of promise skating alongside Claude Giroux this preseason), but as always, there are some questions in net - especially with Michael Leighton currently out due to injury. Regardless, the Flyers will be amongst the class of the East.

4. New Jersey Devils
While most of the questions directed towards Lou Lamoriello's team concern the salary cap, they still have some questions on the ice. Can Martin Brodeur still carry the workload in net? Will Ilya Kovalchuk fit in on this Devils team? Is the defense good enough to win a Cup? I'd say probably, yes, and no. The Devils will be a contender, but I have my concerns about their defense, which is fairly underwhelming. I wouldn't be surprised to see Zach Parise emerge as a Hart Trophy candidate.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins
Three big questions for the Penguins: 1) Will their Sergei Gonchar-less defensive unit, plus Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek, be an improvement over last season? I think it will be - don't forget Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski are each one year the wiser. 2) Can Marc-Andre Fleury and Evgeni Malkin bounce back from down seasons? Without doubt I think they will. 3) Can their wingers get the job done? This is the biggest question, and in my estimation the answer will determine how far the Penguins can go. One thing's for sure, you know Sidney Crosby can't be happy about a second round exit.

The next four spots (6th-9th) I had a lot of trouble with...

6. Ottawa Senators
The number one reason I believe the Senators will return to the playoffs this year? Cory Clouston. The Senators have shown a resiliency since he took over at the helm that can be quantified best by their 11-game winning streak last season despite an assortment of injuries. Expect a nice bounce back season for Jason Spezza, as well as a career year for sparkplug Nick Foligno. Their defense, on the whole, should be improved with the addition of Sergei Gonchar and the experience gained last season for Erik Karlsson (both should more than offset the loss of Anton Volchenkov, who is somewhat overrated). If the Senators can get some good goaltending (I don't think they will get anything better than "average"), they could be in store for a very strong season.

7. Tampa Bay Lightning
I have the Lightning finishing seventh for a few key reasons. First, I expect a big bounce back from Vincent Lecavalier, who will always have two legitimate wingers regardless of who he lines up with because of the addition of Simon Gagne. Their top six is very, very good. Second, their defense is improved, with the addition of Pavel Kubina and the maturation of Victor Hedman. Third, while I like Rich Tocchet (his work with Steve Downie and Steven Stamkos should be applauded), you have to think Guy Boucher gives them a boost in the coaching category. I think they'll score a lot, which should offset some deficiencies in net.

8. Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo needs a few things to go their way to stay within the top-eight in the East. 1) Tyler Myers better be as good or better than he was last season, because the defense as a whole is worse. 2) Ryan Miller needs to be as good as he was last season, which is almost unfair to Miller, as his play last season was, at times, other-worldly. 3) Tim Connolly needs to stay relatively healthy again, as he's their best offensive player when in the line-up. If Thomas Vanek and Drew Stafford can up their play, that would also be a huge lift. At the end of the day, I think they'll be good enough to find a ticket to the spring formal.

9. New York Rangers
Marian Gaborik's health permitting, the Rangers are definitely improved from a year ago. Their young players, both on offense and defense, have another year under their belt. Gaborik has a first-line talent in the form of Alexander Frolov to play with. Last time I checked, Henrik Lundqvist is still suiting up in net. Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Michael Del Zotto, and Matt Gilroy should all be better. The big point of emphasis - if the Rangers young forwards show some improvement, score at a better pace than last season, and play more consistently, the Rangers are a playoff team. They are certainly in better shape to execute that offensive goal this year.

10. Carolina Hurricanes
Don't sleep on Carolina this season. While they are certainly in "rebuild mode," they still have more than enough pieces in place to make a playoff push. Jeff Skinner and Patrick O'Sullivan should prove to be nice additions, Joni Pitkanen's play is still on the rise, and Cam Ward and Eric Staal will be the driving force behind Jim Rutherford's young team. They are young, but oozing with talent.

11. Montreal Canadiens
Why do I have the Canadiens falling to the eleven hole? Two big reasons: 1) Not a fan of their offense. Outside of Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Tomas Plekanec, and Michael Cammalleri there's not really anything to get excited about. 2) It's just not a good situation for Carey Price. There's too much animosity and pressure between Price and the Montreal Faithful, and I think these factors outweigh his talent.

12. Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs defense should be solid, and I think they'll get some decent goaltending. But, I don't see this team scoring enough goals to consistently win hockey games. The positives? I expect Phil Kessel to build on his proficient first season in Toronto, and have little doubt that Toronto will not be an easy team to play against. If Dion Phaneuf gets his game together, that would go a long way, as it is a foregone conclusion that Phaneuf will be logging big minutes whether he's playing well, or not - they have too much invested in him to do otherwise.

13. Atlanta Thrashers
A lot of people have been quick to praise Rick Dudley for his moves since taking over in Atlanta. My reply? Eh. While Atlanta certainly has some nice assets to build around - Zach Bogosian, Evander Kane, Bryan Little, Tobias Enstrom, Niclas Bergfors and Alexander Burmistrov - I can't see this team doing much in 2010-2011. They'll be physical, and far from a walk-over, but their top guys they will be relying on aren't good enough to get them into the playoffs.

14. New York Islanders
Significant injuries to Kyle Okposo and Mark Streit before the season even starts? Ouch. It's hard to see a young Islanders team contending for a playoff spot, now. That being said, they are rebuilding, have a great foundation in place (Okposo, Streit, John Tavares, Josh Bailey, Nino Niederreiter, Matt Moulson, etc.) and could still surprise. But, I wouldn't bet on it.

15. Florida Panthers
If there's one team that seems content on sucking this season, it's Florida. They've made no qualms about their intentions to rebuild, and have started the process of deciding which players will be part of the solution. The one reason they might not be that bad? Tomas Vokoun and Jacob Markstrom are damn good goalies.

Western Conference

1. Detroit Red Wings*
I expect the Red Wings to once again climb atop the standings out West for a few reasons, with the central reason being the obvious - they're healthy. Last year they were injury ravaged for the vast majority of the season. But, they're back, healthy, improved (Jiri Hudler, Mike Modano), and on top of that seem to have a goaltender who will give them a strong outing night in and night out. Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg will both see an increase in their offensive production from a year ago, too. Expect big things in the Motor City.

2. Vancouver Canucks*
Vancouver has nearly everything a championship team could ask for. A top-end first line, a reigning MVP, a 70-point Selke Trophy candidate, and a goaltender who is the cream of the crop when he's on his game. While they may lack a bona-fide number one defenseman, they do have a strong group on the blueline from top to bottom. I expect another great season from Daniel and Henrik Sedin (I think both will be 90+ point players - last year was no fluke, they work hard at their craft), and expect a strong effort from Roberto Luongo, who should be better than last season. It helps that they play in the weakest division in the Western Conference, too.

3. Los Angeles Kings*
While the Kings didn't make a "huge" splash in this summer's free agency as many expected, I like what Dean Lombardi did. While Alexei Ponikarovsky is a downgrade over Alexander Frolov, Lombardi didn't make the rash move of caving to Ilya Kovalchuk's demands, stayed the course, and added one of the best shutdown defensemen around in Willie Mitchell, who will be a big help for both Jack Johnson and (not that he needs it) Drew Doughty. The Kings will be even better in 2010-2011.

4. Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago's off-season losses have been well documented, and yes, they do hurt. But, this Hawks team will still be a contender in the West. There's still a lot of depth coming up through the system, they got some decent returns for the pieces they had to part with, and the core is still intact. But, for the Hawks to reach the "Promised Land" once again, they will need even better efforts from their top-end guys. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews still have some room to grow, Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp will continue to be excellent two-way talents, and Duncan Keith will need to lead a defensive unit which just suffered a big loss in the form of a Brian Campbell injury.

5. Phoenix Coyotes
I think Phoenix will repeat their successful run of last season. Why? First and foremost, great goaltending and coaching. In addition to the talents of Ilya Bryzgalov and the tutelage of Dave Tippett, they'll have some new talent in the form of veteran Ray Whitney, top-end prospects Kyle Turris and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and a healthy Scotty Upshall. It's clear that the 'Yotes have bought into what Tippett's teaching, and I'd expect that to continue this season.

6. San Jose Sharks
Oh, the Sharks. The perpetual underachievers. Does anybody really buy the theory that they overcame their playoff demons last spring by beating Detroit in the second round? Did the pundits who abide by that theory happen to catch the next round shellacking handed down to them by Chicago? This year's version of the Sharks continues to boast a great forward core, but their back-end is quite different. Gone is Evgeni Nabokov, in are Antero Niittymaki and the Cup-Winning Antti Niemi - I'd argue this is a slight improvement, or at the worst a lateral move (I never was a Nabokov fan). But, the Sharks have some big holes on their defense, due in large part to the loss of the retired Rob Blake. They're talented, but I don't see them getting very far in the playoffs.

7. St. Louis Blues
While the Blues may have taken a step back last year, their outlook is still very bright. Their young team has another year of experience under their belt, and they improved by leaps and bounds in net in the form of playoff hero, Jaroslav Halak. Health permitting, the Blues have a very underrated and deep defensive unit, as well. How far the Blues go will be indicative of how much some of their younger players have matured - guys like T.J. Oshie and David Backes will bring it every night, but will talented youngsters like Patrik Berglund and David Perron put forth consistent efforts every night? The Blues are still a few moves away from being a contender, but they have a very solid team going forward.

8. Nashville Predators
I'll never bet against Barry Trotz's Preds. Every year, they seem to suffer losses, and nearly every year they find a way into the playoffs. This summer, they lost Jason Arnott and Dan Hamhuis, but added the speedy Matthew Lombardi and the troubled Sergei Kostitsyn. Shea Weber and Ryan Suter will lead the club on the back-end, and Pekka Rinne is turning into one of the league's best in net. Nashville will need a few of the younger guys to step up and find a way to help Nashville's scoring by committee, which I don't think will be a problem..

9. Calgary Flames
The Flames are an interesting team. Their core comprises a workhorse in net (Miikka Kiprusoff), a superstar who seems to have lost a step (Jarome Iginla) on offense, and a defenseman (Jay Bouwmeester) who, by all accounts (whether you think he can be an offensive defenseman or not), underachieved last season. Add two players who were jettisoned away from Calgary (Alex Tanguay and Olli Jokinen), and then brought back into the mix, and you have one very, for lack of a better word, "weird" team here. I think that they still have enough talent to find a way into the playoffs, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they simply imploded.

10. Colorado Avalanche
For starters, let me begin by saying the Avalanche's '09-'10 season was unbelievable. They had a multitude of guys who came out of seemingly nowhere to perform at a very high level, a first-year coach who seemed to push all the right buttons at all the right times to put his young players in positions to succeed, and a goalie who made unbelievable save after unbelievable save. While I really like Colorado's build and future prospects as a team and organization, I see them taking a small step back this season. I expect more of the same from Chris Stewart (no fluke there) and future superstar Matt Duchene. Last year they employed the "bend but not break" style to great success, I'm just not sure if they can pull it off again this year.

11. Minnesota Wild
The Wild's success is contingent on three main points of emphasis: 1) They need to continue to buy into second year Coach Todd Richards' game plan. I thought they looked more comfortable under his system as the year progressed. 2) Brent Burns and Martin Havlat need to a) stay healthy and b) play to their potential. 3) Mikko Koivu needs to elevate his play even higher. He's the engine that drives the Wild, and he needs to perform at a near Datsyukian/Zetterbergian level for the Wild to make the playoffs.

12. Dallas Stars
The Stars are a team that's stuck in no man's land. Ownership problems, money problems, and a roster that isn't good enough to be considered a contender, but isn't bad enough or young enough to be considered rebuilding. The Stars have enough talent offensively to make the playoffs, but their defense is "so-so," and they have big questions in net with the oft-injured Kari Lehtonen. For the Stars to reach the playoffs, they'll need another solid effort from the James Neal - Brad Richards - Loui Eriksson line, secondary scoring from Mike Ribeiro, Brendan Morrow, Jamie Benn, and Steve Ott, to go along with a healthy Kari Lehtonen and an overachieving defense...it's a lot to ask for, but it's not impossible.

13. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets will be an interesting team to watch this season. They have promising offensive youngsters Jakub Voracek, Nikita Filatov, and Derick Brassard who will all start in their top-six, and Captain Rick Nash, who is looking to break through from "star" status to "superstar" status. Their defense is very "bland," and they could certainly use an offensive defenseman to help the power play. The biggest question mark - Steve Mason. Was his rookie season the true Steve Mason, or was it his "sophomore struggle?" I'd hazard a guess at somewhere in between. For Columbus to be successful they'll need much of the same as Dallas - more balanced scoring, their defense to play better than the sum of its parts, and a much better season in net.

14. Anaheim Ducks
Ugh. That's the first sound I made when I took a look at Anaheim's defense a few weeks ago. Factor in Toni Lydman's ailment and they are in even worse shape. Lubomir Visnovsky will be in tough to play a lot of minutes, and it'll be interesting to see how the 20-year old Luca Sbisa, who has some upside as a very steady two-way defenseman, fares. Upfront, the Ducks aren't in too bad of shape. They will try to spread out their offense a bit over three lines, but I'm not sold on that working. For the Ducks to make the playoffs, Ryan Getzlaf will need to put forth a "Hart"-like effort, and Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry, and the ageless wonder Teemu Selanne will need to have great seasons. There goaltending is strong with Jonas Hiller, and he'll need to be a workhorse as Anaheim is sure to get peppered in their defensive zone. Their best strength will probably end up being the power play, where they will need to be deadly.

15. Edmonton Oilers
The "Oilers Faithful" are excited, and they should be. With Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Magnus Paajarvi, the Oilers have three seemingly sure-fire prospects just oozing with potential. But, I wouldn't expect any overnight miracles. Their defense looks horrible on paper. I'm not a Ryan Whitney fan (especially not as a team's number one defenseman), and the Kurtis Foster addition has been overhyped (I could've put up points playing on Tampa Bay's top power play unit). If everything falls into place, the Oilers have a shot at pushing for a playoff spot. Do I see it? No.

The best part about the West? There isn't one team I would completely rule out for a playoff spot.


Eastern Conference Finals
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Boston Bruins

Western Conference Finals
Vancouver Canucks vs. Detroit Red Wings

Stanley Cup Finals
Boston Bruins vs. Detroit Red Wings

Stanley Cup Champions
Detroit Red Wings