Monday, April 12, 2010

Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions


The 82 games are through. The Olympic break has come and gone. The quest for the most historic trophy in pro sports is upon us, at last.

Questions, both old and new, loom. Can Pittsburgh defend their title? Will San Jose finally sack up? Who's the favorite in the ever-competitive Western Conference? Can the Capitals win a cup employing their run-and-gun style?

All of these questions will be answered. Stars will emerge. Third-liners will become household names. Goalies will steal the show. As the current NHL promotion goes, "history will be made."

Here's who I like to emerge victorious from the first round...

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens

On paper, this may seem like an easy call. The Caps have amassed 15 more wins and 33 more points than their first round foe. But, as we saw last year when the Rangers took the Caps to seven games, playoff games aren't played on paper. The Habs sport excellent goaltending in the form of Jaroslav Halak, a decent one-two punch down the middle with Tomas Plekanec and Scott Gomez, and a power play that is second only to Bruce Boudreau's squad. Washington will need to a) stay out of the box, and b) improve on their 25th ranked penalty kill. Montreal is a sub-standard team at even-strength - if this series is played at even-strength, Montreal should get worked. It will be largely upon the shoulders of Halak and Andrei Markov to see to it that Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green are "contained" - there's no chance a team like Montreal can shut them down, but they can certainly slow them down. Speaking of Mike Green, it will be interesting to see if he can improve on his abysmal post-season performance from a year ago.

Prediction: The Habs are able to muster a couple of wins, despite being outplayed in each and every game of the series. At the end of the day, Halak won't be enough to cover up Montreal's even strength deficiencies.

Outcome: Washington in six.

(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers

What would the first round be without a good, old fashioned Atlantic Division showdown? The Devils appear to be poised to contend for Lord Stanley's Cup with the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk, the return of Paul Martin, and the securitization of the second spot in the East. The Flyers, on the other hand, have had a regular season that nobody could've seen coming. The addition of Chris Pronger - who has been, by and far, their top player this season - was supposed to make the Flyers a Stanley Cup favorite, not a team that needed a shootout win on the last day of the season just to get an invitation to the spring dance. But, the Flyers have the tools in place to wreak some havoc. Pronger will log big minutes on the backend for Philly - you can bet that one of him or Kimmo Timonen will be on the ice at nearly all times. For the Flyers to upend the Devils, they'll need great performances upfront from Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, and a Herculean effort from Brian Boucher in between the pipes. Righting the ship with the man-advantage certainly wouldn't hurt, either. For the Devils, the recipe for success is simple. Clog up the neutral zone, feast off of turnovers, and push the Flyers into situations where they'll be forced to take foolish penalties. Zach Parise will find a way to make a difference, regardless of Pronger's presence. Will Martin Brodeur show the hockey world that he's still capable of coming up big in big situations - something he's failed to do lately, both in the playoffs and the Olympics? I think he will.

Prediction: The Flyers find themselves in deep doo doo with a parade to the penalty box. The Devils clog up the neutral zone and feast off of turnovers. Pronger's had a heckuva season, but I think he's past the point where he can single-handedly carry a team in the playoffs.

Outcome: New Jersey in five.

(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins

If you're a big fan of 1-0 and 2-1 hard fought, tight checking games, this series should be just the ticket. The Sabres and Bruins are very similar teams - both boast great goaltending (Ryan Miller vs. Tuukka Rask), as well as a hulking defenseman leading the charge from the back-end (Tyler Myers vs. Zdeno Chara). The main difference comes in the form of scoring. The Sabres rank tenth in goals for, while the Bruins rank dead last in the entire NHL. The Bruins leading goal scorer is Marco Sturm. Mark Recchi, at 42 years young, is legitimately one of their go-to-guys up front. If the Bruins advance to round two, expect Chara, Rask, and Patrice Bergeron to bring their A-game. Buffalo will need to keep doing what they've been doing all season, which is receive top-end goaltending from probable Vezina Trophy Winner Ryan Miller, and get well-rounded scoring up-and-down the lineup. It will be interesting to see how underachieving forwards Tomas Vanek and Michael Ryder, who both enter the playoffs coming off of some hot games, fair throughout the series. The Sabres need Vanek to produce if they have any hope of emerging from the Eastern Conference. The Bruins, who will be in tough to score against Lindy Ruff's Club, need some production from their disappointing sniper.

Prediction: A lot of one goal and overtime games. I expect both clubs to show up and perform, but the Sabres are simply more talented.

Outcome: Buffalo in six.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators

The Pens' defense of their 2009 Stanley Cup Championship will begin against a team that has surpassed the majority of the hockey world's expectations coming into this season. Cory Clouston has done an excellent job of bringing his players together, and getting them to buy into his system built around strong team defense. Daniel Alfredsson has been consistent from Day One, as usual, Jason Spezza has performed excellently since returning from his seemingly yearly bout with an injury, and Mike Fisher has enjoyed his best season as an NHLer. You can count on Alfredsson, Spezza, Fisher, Chris Phillips, and Anton Volchenkov showing up to compete. What will be interesting to see is how goaltender Brian Elliot and 19-year old defenseman Erik Karlsson perform. Elliot will need to come up with his fair share of big saves against Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin & Co, while Karlsson will need to continue to be a game-changer, both offensively and defensively, from the blue line. For the Penguins, everything seems to be falling into place. Crosby - my bid for the Hart Trophy - has been playing like a man possessed over the Pens' most recent stretch of games, Malkin and Sergei Gonchar are back from injury, and the recently acquired Jordan Leopold has done a solid job of shoring up the Pittsburgh backend. So long as the Penguins are throwing out Crosby, Malkin, and Jordan Staal down the middle, it's hard to pick against them.

Prediction: The combination of Crosby, Malkin, and Staal becomes too much for Ottawa to handle. Staal's line will limit what Ottawa's top guns are able to do offensively, and Crosby will continue to play at his best.

Outcome: Pittsburgh in five.

Check in soon for my Western Conference predictions, as well as my pick for this year's Stanley Cup Champ.

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