'09-'10 Eastern Conference Predictions

Here’s a few thoughts about the Eastern Conference I’ll delve into before going into my predictions:

* After the Flyers, Capitals, Bruins, and Penguins, the East becomes wide open. Eight teams (see my five through twelve selections) will be competing for those final four spots

* Last year there were two big point drop-offs. One was between the three and four seeds, and the other between the ten and eleven seeds (I don’t include the drop between thirteen and fourteen seeds because it is unimportant as far as playoff ramifications). That means the three division winners were head and shoulders above the rest, and only two teams that finished outside the playoffs were in competition for a playoff spot. This year, I expect the two big drop-offs to come between four and five, and between twelve and thirteen. Expect the parity in the middle of the Eastern Conference to resemble the log-jam that was prevalent for most of the season in the West last year, where the Dallas Stars, despite finishing a lowly twelfth, were only eight points outside of the playoffs.

* The hardest division for me to pick was the Northeast. The Bruins are clearly the best team, but after that it is wide, and I mean wide, open.

* I still expect four teams to get in from the Atlantic Division, something that’s occurred three straight seasons, now.

* Remember to think about what teams should excel in the shoot-out. It seems trivial, but a team like the Rangers with Henrik Lundqvist in net, and Marian Gaborik and Ales Kotalik shooting, is in a good position to nab a lot of extra points. Guys like Martin Brodeur and Lundqvist loom large in this aspect of the game.

Keeping these thoughts in mind, here are my Eastern Conference Predictions…

1. Philadelphia Flyers*
- Scoring, Checking, Defense, and most importantly, leadership. The Chris Pronger addition gives the Flyers’ one of the best defensive groups in the game, and adds another leader to a locker room already full of them (Mike Richards, Kimmo Timonen, Simon Gagne, Jeff Carter). Two questions linger: Can Ray Emery cut the antics and reach another Stanley Cup Final? And, can the Flyers tame their penalty-laden nature?

2. Washington Capitals*
- With guys like Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green, it’d be a shock if the Caps didn’t capture the Southeast Division, again. But will their defense and goaltending be good enough, and consistent enough, come playoff time? Is Varlamov ready to take the reigns?

3. Boston Bruins*
- The Bruins possess the defending Jack Adams (Claude Julien), Vezina (Tim Thomas), and Norris Trophy (Zdeno Chara) winners. They lost leading goal-scorer Phil Kessel, but they have plenty of guys to help fill the hole. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some questions to be answered. How will David Krejci comeback from off-season surgery? Will Patrice Bergeron step up his game offensively?

4. Pittsburgh Penguins
- Sidney Crosby. Evgeni Malkin. Sergei Gonchar. Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins will continue to be successful because their top guns are the best in the business. But, will the role players be able to help them out? If they do, the rest of the league is in trouble.

5. Carolina Hurricanes
- The Hurricanes possess a slightly above average offense and a solid, but unspectacular, defense. So why will they finish fifth? Chemistry, Coaching, and above all, Cam Ward. The ‘Canes will go as far as Eric Staal and Ward can take them. Staal could really use some help from an old buddy - Erik Cole. Will Cole be able to return to the wreck-less abandon style of play he employed before being badly injured by a Brooks Orpik hit?

6. New York Rangers
- The Rangers have made their fair share of changes over the summer. Marian Gaborik heads a vastly different group of forwards up front, while the Rangers have also plugged in two rookies (Michael Del Zotto and Matt Gilroy) for two veterans (Paul Mara and Derek Morris) on the blue-line. Henrik Lundqvist will still rule supreme in between the pipes, which cannot be overlooked. Outside of Lundqvist, there are a handful of question marks. Will Gaborik stay healthy? Will Sean Avery be a problem for his opponents or for his own team? How will John Tortorella’s attack style of play work, especially amongst the defensemen, on Broadyway?

7. New Jersey Devils
- The Devils lost Brian Gionta, John Madden, Bobby Holik, Mike Rupp, and Scott Clemmensen. They added…Cory Murphy and Yann Danis. So this is the year they finally miss the playoffs, right? Nope. Jacques Lemaire will “bore” the Devils right back into the playoffs. Two questions, though - Will Zach Parise continue his offensive exploits in Lemaire’s system? Will Marty Brodeur play like it’s 1995, or play like he did in the game that eliminated the Devils last spring?

8. Toronto Maple Leafs
- The new-look Brian Burke defense looks good. Tomas Kaberle is healthy and in great shape. Jonas Gustavsson is knocking on the door if Vesa Toskala falters. However, there is one big question - can they score enough to win games? The main reasons I like them to sneak into the last playoff spot - grit, determination, and above all, chemistry. I just see this team coming together - probably my biggest “gut” pick here.

9. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Vincent Lecavalier is healthy, the defense is improved, and Steven Stamkos is a year older. Expect Martin St. Louis and Lecavalier to power the Lightning to a much improved season in ‘09-’10. The big question marks will be goaltender Mike Smith’s health and the defensive group. It will also be interesting to see how Victor Hedman performs in his rookie season, as he is tutored by fellow-countrymen Mattias Ohlund.

10. Montreal Canadiens
- I could go through all the additions and departures, but everyone reading this knows the Habs are a completely different team than in ‘08-’09. This season will come down to two things for Montreal - leadership and the play of Carey Price. If the team leaders (Scott Gomez, Mike Cammalleri, Andrei Markov) and goaltending (Carey Price) strive, the Habs will finish higher than 10th. In the fishbowl that is Montreal, it’s anyone’s guess how the team will perform.

11. Ottawa Senators
- Expect Jason Spezza to bounce back to over 90 points. Expect Daniel Alfredsson to go about his business as usual. Milan Michalek should develop well playing on a line with Spezza and Alfredsson. However, the defensive group is below average, and the goaltending duo of Pascal Leclaire (will he stay healthy?) and Brian Elliot doesn’t exactly have me brimming with confidence. The Sens should improve on 83 points, but unless Alexei Kovalev plays like it’s ’07-’08, the defense comes together, and the goaltending proves itself…well, you get the picture. A lot would need to fall into place.

12. Buffalo Sabres
- The Sabres are another difficult team to place. Their offense will be solid, especially if Tim Connolly can stay healthy (doubtful), and the goaltending department is in excellent hands with Ryan Miller. But their defense is awful on paper. I like Craig Rivet, but he’s far from a number one defenseman. Just as Toni Lydman isn’t a number two…I could go down the list. If the defense finds a way to be greater than the sum of its parts, the Sabres should finish better than 12th.

13. Atlanta Thrashers
- Yes, the Thrashers do look much better on paper this year. They should have a quality power-play, Zach Bogosian will continue to develop on the back-end, and they still have one of the elite players in the world in Ilya Kovalchuk. However, the defense is still very iffy in their own zone, the offense is nothing to get excited about, and Kari Lehtonen can’t stay healthy.

14. Florida Panthers
- The Panthers had a nice run at the playoffs last season, coming in at a tie for 8th with the Canadiens, but losing out on the tie-breaker. I don’t think they’ll be that close to the playoffs this season. How will the defense perform without Jay Bouwmeester? Will Nathan Horton finally take the next step? Can Tomas Vokoun and Scott Clemmensen get it done in between the pipes?

15. New York Islanders
- They play in the hardest division in the East, Kyle Okposo is already hurt, and the offense and defense are significantly below average. Well, the power-play with John Tavares and Mark Streit should be fun to watch, atleast, right?

'09-'10 Western Conference Predictions

Here’s a few thoughts about the Western Conference I’ll delve into before going into my predictions:

* Seeds six through twelve were separated by a mere nine points in the standings last season. Expect more of the same this year.

* With so many young teams out West (Blackhawks, Blues, Blue Jackets, Kings, Wild, Avalanche, even the Oilers to an extent), it’s sometimes hard to predict how quickly, or slowly, these teams will advance. Who had both the Blues and the Jackets in the playoffs last season?

* The Central Division is weak no more. The Wings, Hawks, Blues, Jackets, and Preds are all quality teams - there’s no easy games there. I expect four to get into the playoffs, just like last season.

* The parity in the entire league, but especially in the West, is unbelievable (due in large part to the shoot-out, but still). I think thirteen teams could realistically have playoff aspirations (sorry, Phoenix and Colorado)

1. San Jose Sharks*
- The Sharks seemingly have all the pieces in place - two studs (Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley) up front, a stable back-line (Dan Boyle, Rob Blake), and a goaltender with tremendous stats (Evgeny Nabokov). There isn’t a doubt in anyone’s mind they’ll have another excellent season, but will they be able to finally break through in the playoffs? Is their a leader in that dressing room? How will Patrick Marleau respond to being stripped of the captaincy?

2. Detroit Red Wings*
- Has the Central Division improved ten-fold? Yes. Are the Red Wings getting older? Yes. Will they still be a contender? Of Course. They still have the best two-way player in the game in Pavel Datsyuk, the ‘08 Conn Smyth winner in Henrik Zetterberg, and perennial Norris Trophy threat Nicklas Lidstrom on defense. There are some questions, though - when will Lidstrom’s game start to deteriorate because of age? Which Chris Osgood will show up this year?

3. Calgary Flames*
- The Flames have one of the best leaders and offensive forces in the game in Jarome Iginla, a defensive group (Jay Bouwmeester, Dion Phaneuf, Robyn Regehr) that could come to be known as the best in the league, and a goalie (Miikka Kiprusoff) that is a workhorse and a half. But - how will Phaneuf rebound from last year’s poor season? Will Olli Jokinen show up this year? Will “Kipper” be overworked?

4. Chicago Blackhawks
- The ‘Hawks took great strides last season, earning both a playoff berth and a ticket to the Western Conference Finals. They have leadership, youth, grit, coaching, and depth. So what could hold them back? Well, Cristobal Huet isn’t exactly Patrick Roy. Big free-agent pick-up Marian Hossa is supposedly out until January. If Huet plays well and Hossa comes back 100% from injury, Chicago could be in store for a quality season.

5. Anaheim Ducks
- The Ducks experienced a minor re-tooling this summer. The offense is much improved with the additions of Joffrey Lupul and Saku Koivu, who should help Teemu Selanne give the Corey Perry-Ryan Getzlaf-Bobby Ryan some much needed help on offense. But how will the defense respond to Chris Pronger’s absence? Are Ryan Whitney and James Wisniewski capable of being top-three defensemen? Who will start in goal - Jonas Hiller or Jean-Sebastian Giguere?

6. Dallas Stars
- Are you overlooking the Stars? Don’t. It’s easy to forget the Stars were in the Western Conference Finals in ‘08. With Captain Brendan Morrow and Brad Richards back at full-strength, along with the addition of top-prospect Jamie Benn, Dallas’s offense is in great shape. A top nine of Morrow, Richards, Benn, Mike Ribeiro, Loui Eriksson, James Neal, Mike Modano, Steve Ott, and Jere Lehtinen is impressive. But, there are some questions at the other end of the ice. Will Stephane Robidas, Matt Niskanen, and Trevor Daley be able to lead the defense? And, most importantly, will Marty Turco bounce back from a season to forget in ‘08-’09?

7. St. Louis Blues
- If you had to guess which team had the best record in the NHL from January 19th on, would your first guess be the Blues? Probably not, but it’s true. St. Louis has an excellent mixture of youth, veterans, and grit up front. Guys like T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund, and David Perron are only going to get better. Paul Kariya is back and healthy. Erik Johnson has come back strong in the pre-season after missing the entire ‘08-’09 campaign. But, there are questions. Is the defense good enough to handle the Datsyuks, Getzlafs, and Thorntons? Will Chris Mason be able to carry the Blues as their number one tender for the entire season?

8. Columbus Blue Jackets
- Fresh off their first post-season berth, the Jackets are now in search of their first playoff victory after being swept by the Wings last spring. Rick Nash leads an up-and-coming group of forwards (Derick Brassard, Jakub Voracek, Nikita Filatov) on offense, which should improve on their totals of last season. Steve Mason had a magical rookie season in net - will he be able to avoid the sophomore slump? Will a defense with Fedor Tyutin as its leader be able to repeat its surprising ‘08-’09 performance?

9. Edmonton Oilers
- With Craig MacTavish out in Edmonton and Pat Quinn in at the helm, it will be interesting to see how the Oilers respond. Will Dustin Penner emerge into a successful power forward? Will Ales Hemsky become a top ten NHL player? How will the Oilers plethora of offensive rearguards (Sheldon Souray, Lubomir Visnovsky, Tom Gilbert, Denis Grebeshkov) be utilized? Will Sam Gagner have a break-out season? How about Patrick O’Sullivan - is this the year for him to emerge? Lots of potential in Edmonton. Lots of questions, too.

10. Vancouver Canucks
- With the Sedin twins and Roberto Luongo locked up long-term, and Mats Sundin gone and retired, the only questions the Canucks face this year will be on the ice. They possess a very solid defense and a middling offensive group. Does Vancouver have enough pieces in place outside of Luongo to be a serious cup contender. Will there be enough scoring? How will Mattias Ohlund’s departure effect the defense and team leadership? While a lot of teams in the West have improved, I think the Canucks have gone in the other direction.

11. Nashville Predators
- Jason Arnott, Steve Sullivan, and J.P. Dumont on the top-line. Martin Erat and David Legwand on the second. Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, and Dan Hamhuis on the back-end. Sounds fairly similar to me. Pekka Rinne will look to continue his excellent play in net, while rookie Colin Wilson will look to make his mark at the NHL level. The Preds are far from the most talented team in the West, but they will contend hard for a playoff spot like they always do.

12. Los Angeles Kings
- The Kings are knocking on the door. They are almost there. With young guns like Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown up front, and Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson patrolling the blue-line, it’s only a matter of time before the Kings emerge as a quality team out West. The additions of Ryan Smyth and Rob Scuderi should help the Kings learn what it takes to win. However, are the offensive and defensive groups good enough to make the playoffs, yet? Is Jonathon Quick a capable number one netminder? Is Terry Murray’s defensive system conducive to winning in the new NHL, or is he just trying to instill some defensive responsibility into his young team before loosening the reigns?

13. Minnesota Wild
- Will the Wild be worse this year? Probably. Are they in a better long-term position now with Jacques Lemaire gone? Definitely. Gone are the days of playing not to lose, just trying to stay competitive, and rushing and ruining young prospects. Under the Wild’s new regime, the teams’ top players (Mikko Koivu, Martin Havlat, Brent Burns) should thrive offensively. The future is brighter now in Minnesota.

14. Phoenix Coyotes
- Need I discuss the turmoil surrounding the Coyotes? From a hockey standpoint, the ‘Yotes are a young team that is in need of much tutelage. Dave Tippet will supply them with that. Some questions to consider - How will Ilya Bryzgalov perform after a sub-par year in ’08-’09? Will Peter Mueller regroup after experiencing the sophomore slump? How will Mikkel Boedker respond in his second season?

15. Colorado Avalanche
- The post-Sakic era begins for the Avs this season as they try to rebuild their way to success. Paul Stastny and rookie Matt Duchene are good building blocks. Will they be able to re-create some Petr Forsberg/Joe Sakic type moments out in the Rockies?

'09-'10 NHL Playoff and Award Predictions

Playoff Predictions:

Eastern Conference Finals:
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference Finals:
Detroit Red Wings vs. San Jose Sharks

Stanley Cup Finals:
Detroit Red Wings vs. Philadelphia Flyers

Stanley Cup Champion:
Philadelphia Flyers

Awards:

Art Ross Trophy:
Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)

Rocket Richard Trophy:
Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)

Hart Trophy:
Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)

Norris Trophy:
Zdeno Chara (Boston Bruins)

Vezina Trophy:
Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers)

Evgeny Grachev Sent to Hartford

Good move by Rangers' management.

In my mind, Evgeny Grachev is not physically ready to play in the NHL, just yet. I'd rather see the lanky Russian winger succeed at the AHL level before moving up to the big league. Rangers fans need to remember he's only 19, and it's not as if the Rangers are in a position where they have a lot of openings up front.

Playing in the AHL will allow Grachev to build up his confidence and consistency - there is no reason to rush him, at all.

I also hope this is a prelude to Vinny Prospal staying on the wing.

If Prospal plays wing, the Rangers have six quality "top-nine" wingers - Prospal, Marian Gaborik, Ryan Callahan, Chris Higgins, Ales Kotalik, and Sean Avery - and that's not including Enver Lisin, who will probably assume Avery's spot as he continues to recover from an MCL sprain. Even if Grachev were to make the team, I couldn't see him playing more than 10-12 minutes a game, which probably isn't the best course for his development.

Assuming Avery can't go on Friday, I think the Rangers will look like this upfront:

Prospal-Dubinsky-Gaborik
Lisin-Drury-Kotalik
Higgins-Anisimov-Callahan
Voros-Boyle-Brashear

The Rangers played it safe here with what they hope will be a future stalwart up front.

I think it was the right move.

Pre-Season News & Notes

How about Theo Fleury?

At 41-years young, the diminutive forward has turned back the clocks during his pre-season tryout with the Calgary Flames.

4 games played, 1 goal, 3 assists, 1 shoot-out game-winner. Not bad for a guy who hasn't played in the NHL since 2003.

It's nice to see Fleury sober and where he should be - on the ice...

A $14 million defensive third-pair with a cap hit of $11.5 million?

That has become a real possibility for the Rangers.

With the Rangers' defensive corps now set (Staal, Girardi, Rozsival, Redden, Del Zotto, Gilroy, Semenov), it's possible the Rangers start the season with these defensive pairs:

Staal-Gilroy
Del Zotto-Girardi
Redden-Rozsvial

I'll let you decide what the third-pair is...

Nazem Kadri has Leafs Nation briming with excitement. Kadri has been an offensive force for Brian Burks' club in the pre-season. However, don't expect him to make the big club.

Coach Wilson has been pretty definitive in saying Kadri will be going back to London.

OHL defensemen can't be too happy about that...

Jonathan Ericsson was the dead last pick in the 2002 draft.

He's now a top-four defenseman for arguably the best organization in the NHL.

Expect Ericsson to learn loads from his new stall-neighbor, Nicklas Lidstrom. He will never possess Lidstrom's offensive and overall exploits, but he is, and will continue to be, a force on the defensive side of the puck...

What the puck is going to happen with the 'Yotes?

Gretzky's out as coach, prized-prospect Kyle Turris is heading to the AHL, and the court battle to decide where Phoenix will play this season and beyond is still raging.

Word is they are about to hire Dave Tippet, a quality coach who should help the young squad develop.

Jim Balsillie has altered his proposal to keep the Coyotes in the desert for this season, and then move the franchise to Hamilton.

Without getting into my detailed view of the issue, I'll say this - Canada deserves another franchise...

Expect my predictions to be up this weekend. I want to see how all the cuts and try-outs work out before I finalize my picks.