'09-'10 Western Conference Predictions

Here’s a few thoughts about the Western Conference I’ll delve into before going into my predictions:

* Seeds six through twelve were separated by a mere nine points in the standings last season. Expect more of the same this year.

* With so many young teams out West (Blackhawks, Blues, Blue Jackets, Kings, Wild, Avalanche, even the Oilers to an extent), it’s sometimes hard to predict how quickly, or slowly, these teams will advance. Who had both the Blues and the Jackets in the playoffs last season?

* The Central Division is weak no more. The Wings, Hawks, Blues, Jackets, and Preds are all quality teams - there’s no easy games there. I expect four to get into the playoffs, just like last season.

* The parity in the entire league, but especially in the West, is unbelievable (due in large part to the shoot-out, but still). I think thirteen teams could realistically have playoff aspirations (sorry, Phoenix and Colorado)

1. San Jose Sharks*
- The Sharks seemingly have all the pieces in place - two studs (Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley) up front, a stable back-line (Dan Boyle, Rob Blake), and a goaltender with tremendous stats (Evgeny Nabokov). There isn’t a doubt in anyone’s mind they’ll have another excellent season, but will they be able to finally break through in the playoffs? Is their a leader in that dressing room? How will Patrick Marleau respond to being stripped of the captaincy?

2. Detroit Red Wings*
- Has the Central Division improved ten-fold? Yes. Are the Red Wings getting older? Yes. Will they still be a contender? Of Course. They still have the best two-way player in the game in Pavel Datsyuk, the ‘08 Conn Smyth winner in Henrik Zetterberg, and perennial Norris Trophy threat Nicklas Lidstrom on defense. There are some questions, though - when will Lidstrom’s game start to deteriorate because of age? Which Chris Osgood will show up this year?

3. Calgary Flames*
- The Flames have one of the best leaders and offensive forces in the game in Jarome Iginla, a defensive group (Jay Bouwmeester, Dion Phaneuf, Robyn Regehr) that could come to be known as the best in the league, and a goalie (Miikka Kiprusoff) that is a workhorse and a half. But - how will Phaneuf rebound from last year’s poor season? Will Olli Jokinen show up this year? Will “Kipper” be overworked?

4. Chicago Blackhawks
- The ‘Hawks took great strides last season, earning both a playoff berth and a ticket to the Western Conference Finals. They have leadership, youth, grit, coaching, and depth. So what could hold them back? Well, Cristobal Huet isn’t exactly Patrick Roy. Big free-agent pick-up Marian Hossa is supposedly out until January. If Huet plays well and Hossa comes back 100% from injury, Chicago could be in store for a quality season.

5. Anaheim Ducks
- The Ducks experienced a minor re-tooling this summer. The offense is much improved with the additions of Joffrey Lupul and Saku Koivu, who should help Teemu Selanne give the Corey Perry-Ryan Getzlaf-Bobby Ryan some much needed help on offense. But how will the defense respond to Chris Pronger’s absence? Are Ryan Whitney and James Wisniewski capable of being top-three defensemen? Who will start in goal - Jonas Hiller or Jean-Sebastian Giguere?

6. Dallas Stars
- Are you overlooking the Stars? Don’t. It’s easy to forget the Stars were in the Western Conference Finals in ‘08. With Captain Brendan Morrow and Brad Richards back at full-strength, along with the addition of top-prospect Jamie Benn, Dallas’s offense is in great shape. A top nine of Morrow, Richards, Benn, Mike Ribeiro, Loui Eriksson, James Neal, Mike Modano, Steve Ott, and Jere Lehtinen is impressive. But, there are some questions at the other end of the ice. Will Stephane Robidas, Matt Niskanen, and Trevor Daley be able to lead the defense? And, most importantly, will Marty Turco bounce back from a season to forget in ‘08-’09?

7. St. Louis Blues
- If you had to guess which team had the best record in the NHL from January 19th on, would your first guess be the Blues? Probably not, but it’s true. St. Louis has an excellent mixture of youth, veterans, and grit up front. Guys like T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund, and David Perron are only going to get better. Paul Kariya is back and healthy. Erik Johnson has come back strong in the pre-season after missing the entire ‘08-’09 campaign. But, there are questions. Is the defense good enough to handle the Datsyuks, Getzlafs, and Thorntons? Will Chris Mason be able to carry the Blues as their number one tender for the entire season?

8. Columbus Blue Jackets
- Fresh off their first post-season berth, the Jackets are now in search of their first playoff victory after being swept by the Wings last spring. Rick Nash leads an up-and-coming group of forwards (Derick Brassard, Jakub Voracek, Nikita Filatov) on offense, which should improve on their totals of last season. Steve Mason had a magical rookie season in net - will he be able to avoid the sophomore slump? Will a defense with Fedor Tyutin as its leader be able to repeat its surprising ‘08-’09 performance?

9. Edmonton Oilers
- With Craig MacTavish out in Edmonton and Pat Quinn in at the helm, it will be interesting to see how the Oilers respond. Will Dustin Penner emerge into a successful power forward? Will Ales Hemsky become a top ten NHL player? How will the Oilers plethora of offensive rearguards (Sheldon Souray, Lubomir Visnovsky, Tom Gilbert, Denis Grebeshkov) be utilized? Will Sam Gagner have a break-out season? How about Patrick O’Sullivan - is this the year for him to emerge? Lots of potential in Edmonton. Lots of questions, too.

10. Vancouver Canucks
- With the Sedin twins and Roberto Luongo locked up long-term, and Mats Sundin gone and retired, the only questions the Canucks face this year will be on the ice. They possess a very solid defense and a middling offensive group. Does Vancouver have enough pieces in place outside of Luongo to be a serious cup contender. Will there be enough scoring? How will Mattias Ohlund’s departure effect the defense and team leadership? While a lot of teams in the West have improved, I think the Canucks have gone in the other direction.

11. Nashville Predators
- Jason Arnott, Steve Sullivan, and J.P. Dumont on the top-line. Martin Erat and David Legwand on the second. Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, and Dan Hamhuis on the back-end. Sounds fairly similar to me. Pekka Rinne will look to continue his excellent play in net, while rookie Colin Wilson will look to make his mark at the NHL level. The Preds are far from the most talented team in the West, but they will contend hard for a playoff spot like they always do.

12. Los Angeles Kings
- The Kings are knocking on the door. They are almost there. With young guns like Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown up front, and Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson patrolling the blue-line, it’s only a matter of time before the Kings emerge as a quality team out West. The additions of Ryan Smyth and Rob Scuderi should help the Kings learn what it takes to win. However, are the offensive and defensive groups good enough to make the playoffs, yet? Is Jonathon Quick a capable number one netminder? Is Terry Murray’s defensive system conducive to winning in the new NHL, or is he just trying to instill some defensive responsibility into his young team before loosening the reigns?

13. Minnesota Wild
- Will the Wild be worse this year? Probably. Are they in a better long-term position now with Jacques Lemaire gone? Definitely. Gone are the days of playing not to lose, just trying to stay competitive, and rushing and ruining young prospects. Under the Wild’s new regime, the teams’ top players (Mikko Koivu, Martin Havlat, Brent Burns) should thrive offensively. The future is brighter now in Minnesota.

14. Phoenix Coyotes
- Need I discuss the turmoil surrounding the Coyotes? From a hockey standpoint, the ‘Yotes are a young team that is in need of much tutelage. Dave Tippet will supply them with that. Some questions to consider - How will Ilya Bryzgalov perform after a sub-par year in ’08-’09? Will Peter Mueller regroup after experiencing the sophomore slump? How will Mikkel Boedker respond in his second season?

15. Colorado Avalanche
- The post-Sakic era begins for the Avs this season as they try to rebuild their way to success. Paul Stastny and rookie Matt Duchene are good building blocks. Will they be able to re-create some Petr Forsberg/Joe Sakic type moments out in the Rockies?

'09-'10 NHL Playoff and Award Predictions

Playoff Predictions:

Eastern Conference Finals:
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference Finals:
Detroit Red Wings vs. San Jose Sharks

Stanley Cup Finals:
Detroit Red Wings vs. Philadelphia Flyers

Stanley Cup Champion:
Philadelphia Flyers

Awards:

Art Ross Trophy:
Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)

Rocket Richard Trophy:
Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)

Hart Trophy:
Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)

Norris Trophy:
Zdeno Chara (Boston Bruins)

Vezina Trophy:
Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers)

Evgeny Grachev Sent to Hartford

Good move by Rangers' management.

In my mind, Evgeny Grachev is not physically ready to play in the NHL, just yet. I'd rather see the lanky Russian winger succeed at the AHL level before moving up to the big league. Rangers fans need to remember he's only 19, and it's not as if the Rangers are in a position where they have a lot of openings up front.

Playing in the AHL will allow Grachev to build up his confidence and consistency - there is no reason to rush him, at all.

I also hope this is a prelude to Vinny Prospal staying on the wing.

If Prospal plays wing, the Rangers have six quality "top-nine" wingers - Prospal, Marian Gaborik, Ryan Callahan, Chris Higgins, Ales Kotalik, and Sean Avery - and that's not including Enver Lisin, who will probably assume Avery's spot as he continues to recover from an MCL sprain. Even if Grachev were to make the team, I couldn't see him playing more than 10-12 minutes a game, which probably isn't the best course for his development.

Assuming Avery can't go on Friday, I think the Rangers will look like this upfront:

Prospal-Dubinsky-Gaborik
Lisin-Drury-Kotalik
Higgins-Anisimov-Callahan
Voros-Boyle-Brashear

The Rangers played it safe here with what they hope will be a future stalwart up front.

I think it was the right move.

Pre-Season News & Notes

How about Theo Fleury?

At 41-years young, the diminutive forward has turned back the clocks during his pre-season tryout with the Calgary Flames.

4 games played, 1 goal, 3 assists, 1 shoot-out game-winner. Not bad for a guy who hasn't played in the NHL since 2003.

It's nice to see Fleury sober and where he should be - on the ice...

A $14 million defensive third-pair with a cap hit of $11.5 million?

That has become a real possibility for the Rangers.

With the Rangers' defensive corps now set (Staal, Girardi, Rozsival, Redden, Del Zotto, Gilroy, Semenov), it's possible the Rangers start the season with these defensive pairs:

Staal-Gilroy
Del Zotto-Girardi
Redden-Rozsvial

I'll let you decide what the third-pair is...

Nazem Kadri has Leafs Nation briming with excitement. Kadri has been an offensive force for Brian Burks' club in the pre-season. However, don't expect him to make the big club.

Coach Wilson has been pretty definitive in saying Kadri will be going back to London.

OHL defensemen can't be too happy about that...

Jonathan Ericsson was the dead last pick in the 2002 draft.

He's now a top-four defenseman for arguably the best organization in the NHL.

Expect Ericsson to learn loads from his new stall-neighbor, Nicklas Lidstrom. He will never possess Lidstrom's offensive and overall exploits, but he is, and will continue to be, a force on the defensive side of the puck...

What the puck is going to happen with the 'Yotes?

Gretzky's out as coach, prized-prospect Kyle Turris is heading to the AHL, and the court battle to decide where Phoenix will play this season and beyond is still raging.

Word is they are about to hire Dave Tippet, a quality coach who should help the young squad develop.

Jim Balsillie has altered his proposal to keep the Coyotes in the desert for this season, and then move the franchise to Hamilton.

Without getting into my detailed view of the issue, I'll say this - Canada deserves another franchise...

Expect my predictions to be up this weekend. I want to see how all the cuts and try-outs work out before I finalize my picks.

What to Make of Rangers Camp

The New York Rangers have been one of the teams to watch in the pre-season. With new faces all around and spots to be won, it was anyone's guess what the Rangers might look like to start the '09-'10 campaign. With only 24 guys remaining on John Tortorella's roster, one would assume the picture is becoming a lot clearer.

It's not.

The last two to three cuts are still very much up in the air, and the question of where everyone who does make the team will line-up has gotten progressively murkier.

First, Bradon Dubinsky ended his hold-out, signing a two-year deal that will pay him a total of $3.7 million over two years. It was assumed he would definitely center Marian Gaborik on the first line. But will he?

Right now, it's looking like the top-line pivot of choice for Tortorella is Vinny Prospal, who hasn't played center consistently since his pre-NHL days. Combine the fact that Prospal will probably be centering Gaborik, along with the fact that "Torts" has been quoted as saying he doesn't think wing is a great fit for Dubinsky, and you get one interesting situation.

Artem Anisimov, who has had an excellent training camp, was going to be the third line center. But now, with Prospal, Chris Drury, and Dubinsky all above him on the depth chart, where does he fit in? How about Brian Boyle, who has looked solid down he middle on the fourth line - someone who is probably better equipped to handle playing the five minutes a night Tortorella has been known to give his fourth lines in the past?

In today's practice, Anisimov and Boyle took turns participating on the fourth unit.

The situation on the wings is far from clear as well. Sean Avery suffered a sprained MCL yesterday in practice, an injury the Rangers are saying isn't serious, but, none-the-less, still makes things even more puzzling.

The three wild-cards are Enver Lisin, Evgeny Grachev, and Aaron Voros.

Enver Lisin, whose enjoyed what Tortorella has desribed as an eye-opening camp, can really spot in anywhere in the line-up. In today's practice, he was given a shot on the Gaborik-Prospal unit.

Evgeny Grachev, whose forechecking has shown a level of tenacity that has many Rangers fans, including this one, brimming with excitement, is one player the Rangers really want to be careful with. Playing on the fourth line would probably be a waste, as he would be better served to play 20+ minutes a night in Hartford. But with Avery out, one can't help but wonder if Grachev will start the season with the big club. In today's practice he skated with Drury and Ales Kotalik.

The third wild-card is Aaron Voros. His play the last three games has been inspiring, as he is laying it all out on the line to make this team. He is probably suited better for a fourth line role than Grachev and possibly Lisin, which could actually help his chances. Today Tortorella said of Voros, "He puts his time in and he is playing well. He has done a lot of good things for us. It is a good problem for us to have. We have a log jam in some areas and he is part of that log jam. I am not sure where it is going to settle but he has certainly played to a level where he is fighting for a position on this club."

It all comes down to where Tortorella decides to use Prospal. If he plays center, two things happen. First, one of Anisimov or Boyle will probably start the season in the AHL. My guess would be Anisimov, who would be better served playing 20+ minutes a night with the Hartford than five a night with the Rangers. Plus, Boyle is better suited to play with a vigilante like Donald Brashear. Second, Grachev's chances improve to make the big club, as one less wing is there to take a spot - and that hole would be on a scoring line, as well.

If Prospal plays on the wing, two different things would happen. For starters, Anisimov would center the third line, and Boyle the fourth. The other occurrence would be Grachev almost surely starting the season in Hartford.

This is, of course, assuming Avery is healthy enough to start the season. If not, expect Lisin and Grachev to both play in the top-nine.

But then again, without Avery maybe they move Prospal back to wing?

Only time will tell...

As far as the defense goes, I think the situation is fairly straight forward.

Bobby Sanguinetti will be the odd man out.

Unfortunately for Sanguinetti, he got banged up during the grueling laps that Tortorella administers in training camp, giving Michael Del Zotto and Matt Gilroy a head start in the pre-season games for the two spots Tortorella has reserved for youngsters. I say "unfortunate" because the kid worked hard to get into shape for this season, leaving home and heading to work-out in Toronto for the summer.

Del Zotto and Gilroy have looked exceptionally solid, whereas Sanguinetti has looked "okay," and has shown little to nothing offensively. Expect try-out Alexei Semenov to round out a defensive corps of Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Michal Rozsival, Wade Redden, Del Zotto, and Gilroy.

The one big question is who gets the power-play time?

Del Zotto has looked great manning a point along with Ales Kotalik, and I have the impression he will continue to get a chance to stay there. Simply put, the Ranger's pre-season power-play has looked better when he's been on the ice. Redden and Rozsival's horrible exploits on the power-play are still fresh in Tortorella's mind from last year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the other two spots on the second unit go to whoever has the hot hand out of those two and Gilroy.

Then again, this is pre-season. Maybe he lets Del Zotto and Gilroy take a backseat offensively, at least to start, and allows Rozsival and Redden the chance to prove they can get the job done this season.

My guess is Del Zotto plays the point with Kotalik on one unit and Rozsival and Redden take another, with Gilroy jumping into the mix if and when the power-play underperforms.

It will be interesting to see how the Blueshirts look come October 2nd in Pittsburgh.